9 Trends in ‘global aging’ volgens onderzoek in V.S.
geschreven door Tony Bosma
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29 Mar 2007 - 11:53, 1968x gelezen | 0 reacties |
The ever growing longevity presents many new challenges that will require cooperative planning by the world's nations according to a survey hosted by the U.S. State Department in collaboration with the National Institute on Aging. The survey: Why Population Aging Matters: A Global Perspective, presented 9 interesting and challeging trends in global aging.
The report, uses data from for example the United Nations, US Census Bureau, and the Statistical Office of the European Communities. The report also states that there is not enough awareness for the problem and challenges by the local governments.Â
Despite the weight of scientific evidence, the significance of population aging and its global implications have yet to be fully appreciated. There is a need to raise awareness about not only global aging issues but also the importance of rigorous cross-national scientific research and policy dialogue that will help us address the challenges and opportunities of an aging world.That our population becomes more older then before show these figures for example in 2006 almost 500 million people worldwide were 65 and older. By 2030, that total is will increase to 1 billion. That is 1 in every 8 of the earth’s inhabitants. This trend will bring all kind of challenges in themes social insurance, pension systems, economic growth, trade, migration, disease patterns. 1 – An Aging Population Since the beginning of the human history the number of young children will outnumber the number of old people. 2 – Increasing Life Expectancy Some nations experienced a doubling of the average life expectancy during the 20th century. Life expectancy at birth in Japan now approaches 82 years. 3 – Rising Number of the Oldest Old The older population is getting older itself. This is an important trend because of, for example, chronic diseases, the oldest old have the highest population levels of disability that require long-term care. They also consume public resources disproportionately. Some expected devellopments because of the rise of the oldest old are: Pensions and retirement income will need to cover a longer period of life and health care costs will rise. More than half of the world’s oldest old live in the following six countries: China, the United States, India, Japan, Germany, and Russia. 4 – Growing Burden of Noncommunicable or Chronic Diseases In the next 10 to 15 years, the loss of health and life will be greater from chronic diseases, such as heart disease, cancer and diabetes than infectious and parasitic diseases. 5 – Aging and Population Decline More and more countries will have to deal with the trend of a simultaneous aging population and decline in population. For example Japan’s total population is projected to decrease by 11 million, the population age 65 and over is projected to increase by 8 million between 2006 and 2030. 6 – Changing Family Structure The family structures will transform. This has important implications in terms of providing care to older people. 7 - Shifting Patterns of Work & Retirement More and more policy will struggle with the balance between public and private income security systems. For example in the 1960's, men on average could expect to spend 46 years in the workforce and a little more than one year in retirement. By 1995, the number of years in the workforce had decreased to 37 while the number of years in retirement had jumped to 12. 8 – Evolving Social Insurance System More and more countries are develloping and evaluating the sustainability of old-age social insurance systems. 9 – Emerging Economic ChallengesPopulation aging will have dramatic effects on local, regional, and global economies. Most significantly, financial expenditures and labor supply.The report clearly makes the statement that is is time for governments to act on it now or we will be too late.
Some governments have begun to plan for the long term, but most have not. The window of opportunity for reform is closing fast as the pace of population aging accelerates. While Europe currently has four people of working age for every older person, it will have only two workers per older person by 2050. In some countries the share of gross domestic product devoted to social insurance for older people is expected to more than double in upcoming years. Countries therefore have only a few years to intensify efforts before demographic effects come to bear.
EXTRA FIELD-5:vergrijzing, wereldbevolking, trends, toekomst, ouderdom, ouderen, demografie
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