Pearson predicts: Artificial Intelligence will win nobelprices in 2020
In Life Scientist there is a inspiring interview with British Telecom's futurist Ian Pearson. One of his statements is about the rise of computer intelligence. I think Ian sees this a little bit to possitive. Maybe all what he predicts may be technical feasible but the human barrier will not be taken within a few years.
Artificial Entities will be awarded with Nobel prizes by 2020, and soon after robots will become mentally superior to humans.
How does Ian get all this wisdom for his predictions? Well he reads a lot. Reading books, blogs, journals and surfing the internet is an important source for him. Besides this Ian spends a lot of time talking to people. Mirroring his vision with others.
Then I spend a long time daydreaming, thinking about how the thing interacts, and gradually I come up with a view of the future.
According to Ian's vision the first machines with conciousness will appear between the year 2015 and 2020. This will not be the consciousness as we know it people have. It will be different but machines will know the context and where they are and what to do. With the rise of consciousness in machines they will very fast develop themselves into machines which surpass the human intelligence. Also written about on Extend Limist under singularity.
I think that we still should expect a conscious computer smarter than people by 2020. I still see no reason why that it is not going to happen in that time frame
In the far future we will even be able to modify humans by gen-modifications. And this is very scary. It will be in the far future but it is the 21ste century. So in this century we will have the possibilities to make any minor modification in our genes to make the human being that we want.
how far do we go till we decide that we want to add genetic processing enhancement in people that allow them, for example, to link directly to machines
What do you think about this vision of Ian? Artificial intelligence will have a strong rise. Just have a look at the computer intelligence which already exists in computer games. With the combination off several other scientific areas there will be a boom in breakthroughs. Just think about the combination of biotechnology, nanotechnology, informatie technology etc. But we may never forget one important aspect: humans. We humans must accept all the technological advancements. And the acceptance of technology will slow down the advancements. This will not mean that it will not happen. I agree with Ian about his scenario. But it will take much longer in time!
Read the full article with Ian Pearson of BT. Also see the Pearsons Technology Timeline of 2006 - 2051.
Related posts on Extend Limits:
- Kurzweil...in 2027 technology will surpas human intelligence
- AI will surpass intelligence after 2020
- Human 2.0
